Transparency of monetary policy in the macroeconomic projections function of Macedonia

Continuing the successful supremacy and transparency of professional, scientific and research activities under the collaboration of the University of Tourism and Management in Skopje, a presentation held to the students Anita Angelovska - Bezoska, Vice Governor of the National Bank of Macedonia.

Vice Governor Angelovska - Bezovska to the students at UTMS spoke on several topics covering the areas of monetary policy, research and statistics, she obtain a segments of the process of macroeconomic projections and making monetary decisions that are happening across multiple steps. From the definition of the basic assumptions of exogenous forecasts economic growth and inflation, the most important trading partners , through the prices of primary products, to the preparation of projections for the Republic of Macedonia, or its economic growth, inflation, balance of payments and monetary sector. The scope of its presentation to find and prepare the quarterly report with an explanation of the key assumptions, projections, and variance compared to the previous cycle of projections and risks to the projections.

According to Angelovska - Bezoska, while creating macro-economic projections for the year 2014 -2015, as seen positioned several aspects, is the inflation, which includes slowing inflation in 2013 at 2.9 % and about 2 % in period 2014-2015 then the downward pressure from the supply given the prevailing downward movements in primary products, and of course the gradual strengthening of demand pressures in accordance with the expectations of gradual closing output gap.

Regarding the plan of GDP the Vice Governor of the National Bank of Macedonia noted moderate economic recovery in 2013 and the gradual acceleration of growth in 2014 and 2015, as well as faster closing the negative output gap in the first half of 2014, while the plan of the current account, as pointed particularly important for assessing retention of the current account deficit in 2013 to a level of 2012 and the gradual deterioration in 2014 and 2015. Of course, this also includes the more substantial narrowing of the trade balance in 2013 as a result of reduced pressures from imported energy, then the slight widening of the trade balance in 2014 and 2015, with more pronounced import pressures and raw material investment demand and moderate decrease in the share of private transfers in GDP by 2015.

Vice Governor of the National Bank of Macedonia, in his presentation at the University of Tourism and Management referred to the plan of capital inflows, which singled out the section on slower growth in 2013, after which, he said, is expected to intensify capital inflows in 2014 and 2015, foreign direct investment and external borrowing intended solely for infrastructure. In this regard Bezovska says that after the fall in international reserves in 2013 are expected to be increased in 2014 and 2015, with foreign exchange reserves would still be maintained on an adequate level.

In its concluding observations , guest lecturer at UTMS positioning final projections for the upcoming period, the latest trends, and comparison with projection and implications for future projections cycle, which as explained in the medium term expected growth model based the export segment, which will have an impact in stimulating domestic demand, and of course the movements in inflation are expected to be mainly influenced by factors on the supply side, but in terms of acceleration of growth is expected to gradually closing the gap negative. The medium term expected visible effects of FDI through narrowing the trade deficit, and hence the current account deficit, while capital inflows are expected to be sufficient to cover the current account deficit and providing additional growth of foreign exchange reserves. However, as a special segment isolate sensitivity scenario of possible changes in the global economic environment, as they emphasize, requires further regular monitoring of global developments and monetary policy flexibility.

The vast interest by students resulted in an open invitation for maintenance of new presentations on topics of monetary and macroeconomic issues, which, by Angelovska - Bezhoska M.Sc. was gladly accepted.